Zeldin Takes Lead Over Hochul 45.5% to 44% in New York Governor Poll

NEW YORK – A new statewide survey of 800 likely general election voters in New York State found Congressman Lee Zeldin (R, NY-1), the Republican Party and Conservative Party designee for Governor, has taken a 45.5% to 44% lead over Governor Kathy Hochul in the 2022 race for Governor of New York.

“Over the last year, we have built an unparalleled movement, powered by thousands of volunteers, tens of thousands of grassroots donations and scores of New Yorkers who are waking up and all in to Save Our State,” said Congressman Zeldin. “These numbers aren’t because of luck. They’re thanks to hard-work, the right message, strategy and execution, and also taking absolutely nothing for granted. As we continue to get our message out coming off of this month’s Republican and Conservative Party conventions and after airing television and radio ads statewide since the beginning of February, it’s never been more clear that we have the issues on our side, we have the momentum of our side, and there’s a big red wave headed straight for New York in 2022.”

Since 2010, Congressman Zeldin has won 7 consecutive races in purple New York City suburban districts, including a primary by over 20 points despite over $4 million spent against him. He flipped a State Senate seat in 2010 that was held by a Democrat incumbent whose family held office in that area for thirty years and then flipped a House seat in 2014 that was held by a Democrat for the prior twelve years.

McLaughlin & Associates, which has always served as Congressman Zeldin’s pollster with precise, consistent accuracy for every one of his campaigns, completed the statewide survey of 800 likely general election voters in New York State. The results show the current political trends in New York are increasingly favorable for Lee Zeldin to win the Governor’s race.

McLaughlin & Associates has decades of experience polling in New York and, in 2021, did the polling for the upset victories of Nassau County District Attorney Anne Donnelly, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman and the Conservative Party victories to defeat statewide Propositions 1, 3 and 4.

Topline Survey Results: 

  • Zeldin leads Hochul, 45.5% to 44%, 10.5% undecided

    • Zeldin has more intensity to his vote – 36% Definitely vote for Zeldin / 28% Definitely vote for Hochul

  • Biden 12.5-point net negative – 42.6% approve to 55.1% disapprove

  • Hochul 4.2-point net negative overall – 44.3% approve to 48.5% disapprove

  • 51% of voters prefer a Republican candidate to serve as a check and balance to the Democrat controlled legislature

  • 19% of voters say crime is their top issue (#1 issue to voters)

  • 17.5% of voters say taxes are their top issue (#2 issue to voters)

Methodology: This New York Statewide survey was conducted among 800 likely general election voters between March 9-11, 2022.

A multi-modal approach was employed via live telephone calls and self-administered text messages. The live telephone interviews were conducted by professional interviewers with respondents contacted by both landline phone and cell phone.

The sample includes a mix of 33.7% landline, 33.5% live-caller cellphones interviews, and 32.8% text to cell interviews. Interview selection was at random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to statistically correlate with actual statewide general election voter turnout. The accuracy of the overall sample of 800 likely General Election voters is within +/- 3.4% at a 95% confidence interval.

Of the 800 likely general election voters sampled:

  • 50% are Registered to the Democratic Party (48.4%) or Working Families Party (1.6%)

  • 27% are Registered to the Republican Party (25%) or Conservative Party (2.2%)

  • 23% are Independent/Blank Registered Voters

Unlike other surveys, which have been shown to oversample New York City, of the 800 likely general election voters in this survey, 33.7% are from New York City.

Additionally, unlike other surveys, which have been undersampling Republican Party voters, this survey estimates a Republican Party voter turnout of 27.2%, which is still a conservative estimate. Based on 2010 and 2014 turnout numbers, as well as numerous other factors, the Zeldin for New York campaign predicts Republican Party turnout will be over 30% in New York in 2022.


About Lee Zeldin

Lee Zeldin was born and raised on Long Island. He grew up in Suffolk County and graduated from William Floyd High School in Mastic Beach, where his identical twin daughters attend school today. He earned his bachelor’s degree from the State University of New York at Albany and then his law degree from Albany Law School, becoming New York’s youngest attorney at the time at the age of 23.

Lee spent four years on Active Duty with the U.S. Army after completing ROTC and served in different capacities, including as a Military Intelligence Officer, Prosecutor, and Military Magistrate. In the summer of 2006, while assigned to the Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division, Lee deployed to Iraq with an infantry battalion of fellow paratroopers in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom.

In 2007, Lee returned to Suffolk County with his family. It was at this time that Lee transitioned from Active Duty to the Army Reserve, where he currently serves with the rank of Lieutenant Colonel.

In 2008, Lee established a successful law practice in Smithtown, NY. Elected to the New York State Senate two years later, in 2010, Lee’s been working hard every day since to keep the promises he made to the hard-working families he represents.

In the State Senate, Lee:

  • Led the successful effort to repeal the MTA Payroll Tax for 80 percent of employers, a job killing tax that was hurting small businesses. 

  • Cosponsored the nation’s strongest property tax cap, which became law.

  • Reduced middle-income tax rates in New York to the lowest level in 60 years.

  • Secured the repeal of the Saltwater Fishing License Fee.

  • Created the PFC Joseph Dwyer Veteran Peer Support Program to help our returning veterans cope with Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI). 

  • Authored the law to protect our fallen veterans and their families from protests at military burials. 

Lee was then elected to the United States Congress in 2014, representing New York’s First Congressional District, and has now won seven consecutive races since 2010 in purple NYC suburban districts, unseating two Democrat incumbents along the way. In Congress, Lee quickly became a leading voice in America on top local, domestic and foreign policy issues: 

  • Combating and defeating MS-13 on Long Island, leading the charge in New York and nationally against cashless bail, opposing all efforts to defund, dismantle or abolish police, and providing law enforcement the resources they need to fight gang violence and other crimes in our communities, including bulletproof vests.

  • Securing the repeal of many harmful, job killing regulations, with the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act, and many other initiatives, to improve our business climate and grow our economy. 

  • Leading the charge to end all COVID mandates. 

  • Saving Plum Island, by securing the repeal of a 2008 federal law requiring the island to be sold off to the highest bidder. 

  • Delivering a $1.5 billion boost in border security resources, helping to choke off the flow of illegal migration across our borders. 

  • Introducing and passing into law his Adult Day Health Care legislation for disabled veterans and opening a new health care clinic for East End veterans.

  • Delivering the Electron Ion Collider “discovery machine” to Brookhaven National Lab that will enable advancements in national security, medical and cancer research, astrophysics, and more and create an extensive number of jobs. 

  • Advancing his law enforcement bill of rights, which would help ensure that our great law enforcement officers and the people they serve are protected.

  • Championing the expansion of the Dwyer Program nationally, to help all of our nation’s veterans access the resources they need. 

  • Securing much needed support of treatment, enforcement, and prevention for those affected by the heroin and opioid abuse crisis.

  • Leading the effort against the fatally flawed Iran Nuclear Deal.

  • Co-authoring a bipartisan resolution (H.Res. 246) that passed the House opposing the anti-Israel and antisemitic Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions movement.

  • Working with the Army Corps of Engineers to protect our coastlines, advancing the ambitious Fire Island to Montauk Point project, in addition to several other vital projects on the north and south shores of Long Island.

  • Co-Chairing the Long Island Sound Caucus and advancing top priorities for the Long Island Sound Program, National Estuary Program and SeaGrant.

  • Co-chairing, as one of only two Jewish Republicans in Congress, the House Republican Israel Caucus, and serving on the House Foreign Affairs Committee and Financial Services Committee, as well as four House Subcommittees.

  • Successfully resolving over 17,000 constituent cases in favor of his constituents.

Lee and his wife, Diana, reside in Shirley with their twin fifteen-year old daughters, Mikayla and Arianna.